Saturday, April 7, 2012

Breaking Down the Keystone Clash

The 5th seeded Philadelphia Flyers will open up the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against the 4th seeded Pittsburgh Penguins in a building that has been thus far kind to the Flyers, the CONSOL Energy Center in Pittsburgh (the Flyers are 5-1 there since the building opened at the start of the 10'-11' season).

Go ahead and ask any member of the sports media what the most heavily anticipated 1st round match-up of the 2012 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs is. I'm willing to bet that 9 out of 10 will choose the Flyers VS. their bitter rivals, the Penguins. It's the 3rd time these two teams have met in the playoffs in the last 5 years. Analysts are practically salivating over it. Furthermore, a current poll on NHL.com has this series as the most heavily anticipated by all fans across the league.

It's easy to understand why. An already vicious rivalry boiled over this past Sunday during the Flyers 6-4 win in Pittsburgh. Brayden Schenn took exception to an unpenalized hit away from the play from Sidney Crosby. While skating back to the bench, Schenn caught up to Crosby and cross-checked the "face of the NHL" face-first into the ice. This drew the ire of the Penguins bench, who are always quick to defend their physically inept star forward. With the Flyers victory secured and just over 1 minute left on the clock, Penguins head coach Dan Bylsma sent out his 4th line players to run amok, presumably to send a message of the physical variety to the Flyers. The result was a crushing open-ice check by Penguins grinder Joe Vitale (who hadn't seen the ice in over 10 minutes) to Flyers center Danny Briere that has him out indefinetly with a back injury (Vitale was also responsible for injuring Flyers defensemen Nicklas Grossmann earlier in the game with an inadvertent knee-on-knee hit). Not only did every Flyer on the ice take exception to it, with a fight erupting instantaneously, it also sent Flyers head coach Peter Laviolette into a whirlwind of fury. Lavvy nearly climbed out of his bench and into Pittsburghs to "share his feelings" with Bylsma. He was able to barely contain himself, but still managed to break Flyers forward Maxime Talbots stick in half over the boards and throw it at the Penguins bench, while hurling expletives that would make a nun blush.

Flyers assistant coach Craig Berube, known for stirring the pot in his playing days, added more fuel to an already raging inferno with his comments on Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and the Penguins organization (comments echoed by Rangers coach John Tortorella this past Thursday night, and again by Jeremy Roenick today).

The stage is set for war on ice. The excitement in the air over the prospects of the Keystone Clash is at a fever pitch. Let's break down the match-up!
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FORWARDS


The Penguins (3.33 goals per game) and Flyers (3.17 goals per game) are the top two offenses in the NHL this season. However, the Flyers boast slightly more depth at the forward position, with 11 forwards with at least 10 goals, 8 players with at least 16 goals, and 4 players with at least 24 goals. The Penguins have 8 forwards with least 10 goals, 7 players with at least 17 goals, and 5 forwards with at least 24 goals. The Penguins are more of a "top-heavy" offense. Their top 2 forwards in goal production have combined for 89 goals (49 for Malkin, 40 for James Neal); whereas the Flyers top 2 forwards in goal production have combined for 65 goals (37 for Scott Hartnell, 28 for Claude Giroux). Spreading out the offense is a recipe for success in the playoffs, and the Flyers have the right ingredients. The absence of Crosby for the large majority of the regular season was factored in and weighed against the astounding numbers of injuries to almost every Flyers forward at some point in the season, most significantly James van Riemsdyk. The Flyers are capable of shutting-down at least one of the "two-headed monsters" and that will ultimately lend to their success.
ADVANTAGE: FLYERS







DEFENSE






The Penguins (17th ranked defense) and Flyers (20th ranked defense) have had their fair share of issues keeping pucks out of their net this season. However, with the Flyers defensive additions at the trade deadline (especially Grossmann) and the improved play of goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov, the Flyers are trending in the right direction. Since the start of March, the Flyers have allowed just 43 goals in 20 games, compared to the Penguins who have allowed 61 goals in 19 games. Kris Letang does provide more firepower from their blueline than any Flyer. Philly will also be without one of their most complete defensemen, Andrej Meszaros, for at least the 1st round.

ADVANTAGE: DRAW





GOALTENDING

Statiscally speaking, Penguins goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury (.913 Save Percentage, 2.36 GAA.) had a better season than Bryzgalov (.909 Save Percentage, 2.48 GAA.). However, Bryzgalov has been better of late, winning the NHL Player of the Month award for March after posting an otherworldy 1.43 GAA. and .947 Save Percentage. His 4 shut-outs in March were 1 more than Fleury has all season. You want your goaltender on a roll heading into the playoffs, and Bryzgalov is on some kind of roll. That being said, Fleury has a wealth of playoff experience, is 2-0 against the Flyers in playoff series', and took home the ultimate prize as the starting goalie in the Penguins 2009 championship run. Bryzgalov was spectacular spelling an injured Jean-Sebastien Giguere for 11 games during the Anaheim Ducks championship run in 2007, but has was relegated to back-up for the Finals once Giguere was healthy. Both netminders Save Percentages have gone down in each of their last 4 playoff appearances, but Fleury's experience and penchant for making clutch saves cannot be overlooked.

ADVANTAGE: PENGUINS
INTANGIBLES

The Flyers reputation may always be tarnished thanks to the Broad Street Bullies of the 70's, but it's the character of the Penguins that has been called in to question this past week. There is no shortage of character on this Flyers team. What they lack in experience, they make up for in sheer determination. There have been very few times this season where this team gave up in a game, despite being plagued by poor 1st periods, injuries, and large deficits. Pittsburgh gets the slight advantage in special teams and faceoffs, two important aspects of winning playoff games, but they'll have to deal with a Flyers team that doesn't give up leads often once they have one but is just as comfortable chasing the game. They seem to thrive off of the challenge of coming back, and it appears as though they have adopted and embraced the "under-dog" status. These teams are about as evenly matched as any of the 1st round match-ups, but the Orange & Black have won 4 of the 5 meaningful games against Pittsburgh this season and seem to have found the formula for beating the NHL's "model franchise." I may be biased here, but i'm allowed to be.

ADVANTAGE: FLYERS

SERIES PREDICTION: FLYERS WIN IT IN 6 GAMES

PLEASE RESPOND WITH YOUR THOUGHTS AND PREDICTIONS BELOW!








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